Premonsoon showers has already lashed many parts of upper pakistan during recent days and we expect two more spells with better intensity and wider range in the coming week starting from monday. During these spells rain will be observed in upper punjab, upper kpk, kashmir, islamabad and scattered parts of central punjab while isolated at northeast Balochistan alongwith the kirthar range.
20-22 June:
Strong monsoon currents will penetrate to upper parts by sunday afternoon or evening resulting in cloud development over kashmir areas which can later cause some rain activity and pleasant winds in sialkot, gujrat, gujranwala and lahore areas.
Increase in rain intensity on monday night and tuesday morning can be observed in scattered parts of Lahore, gujranwala, Islamabad, rawalpindi, sargodha, faislabad, kashmir and upper kpk.
This spell will also reduce the day temperatures a little bit.
Same areas can get thunderstorm rain on tuesday as well. Meanwhile some central parts of punjab kpk and northeast balochistan can get isolated strong ts as well.
25-17 June:
Another Mild premonsoon spell interacted by western winds will casuse scattered medium to isolated high intensity rains in scattered parts of upper punjab, upper kpk, kashmir and Islamabad.
While during these days isolated to scattered showers can occur in central punjab, kirthar ranges and adjoining areas of barkhan, zhob, dadu.
Southeastern parts of sindh can witness first premosnoon light to moderate showers.
Onset:
Monsoon onset which normally happens during first week of july in pakistan is expected to happen it early this time that is around the last two days of june.
That spell will brought widespread good intensity rains in Scattered parts of Punjab, kpk, kashmir, Islamabad, Northeast Balochistan.
During the first week of july monsoon rains will also lash some parts of sindh including karachi.
July - September:
Monsoon 2016 is expected to be surely normal and 10-15% above normal. We expect flooding in upper kpk, kashmir, southwest punjab, northeast balochistan and southern sindh due to high intensity rains by strong systems mainly by july end and august.
Rivers of Punjab can cause flooding in adjoining areas and local streams of Punjab and kpk can overflow resulting in flooding.
All the authorities and farmers should stay careful during the period specially when they will be informed for heavy rains or flood risks.
Quetta can get rains due to monsoon by july end and during august as well.
Karachi rainfall can accumulate upto 170-230 mm overall during the season.But any heavy shower can cause urban flooding in city.
Southern Punjab and southern sindh mainly the areas having desert climate can witness above normal rains followed by flooding.
The most wanted season is at door. Besides the risks of floods and damage it will increase underground water level as well as farmers can get a lot of benefits. Hub dam a big source of water supply in karachi will get plenty of water for storage.
