Monsoon Reached over Northeast Pakistan !

As the upper belt of country is receiving premonsoon showers since last three days now officially the monsoon have made its place over Northeast punjab and kashmir much before than the normal onset.

Today morning good thunderstorm rainfall occurred over number of places of upper punjab and upper kpk, kashmir and some central parts of punjab.

More rainfall to occur in these areas during late wednesday night or early thursday with some decrease in intensity.


Multan, DG, khan, Bahawalpur, bahawalnagar, vihari, burewala and adjoining areas can receive first proper premonsoon on wednesday afternoon and during night.

Chances of few light rains in extreme southern border of sindh this evening/night with high clouds passing through most of southern tip.

 Sibbi, khuzdar, zhob and adjoining areas of northeast balochistan can get premonsoon showers on  thursday late.



Rainfall during last 24 hours:

Punjab: Mandibahauddin=63, Jhang=55, Noorpurthal=49, Mangla=43, Sialkot (A/P=39, Cantt=9), Layyah=36, Gujranwala=31, Sargodha=28, Jhelum=23, Toba Tek Singh=10, Rawalpindi (Chaklala=9, Shamsabad=05), Islamabad (Bokra=08, Golra, Z.P=5, Saidpur=02), Murree=8,  Lahore (PBO=6, A/P=1), Faisalabad=5, Gujrat=04, Chakwal=03, Bhakkar=02.

 KP: Kohat=35, Balakot=21, Malamjabba=14, Bannu=11, Mirkhani=7, Kalam=6, D.I.Khan=3, Parachinar=2, Drosh=2, Dir=1, Kakul=1.

 Kashmir: Muzaffarabad=14, Kotli=7, Garhi Dupatta=6,   Rawalakot=4.

 Gilgit-Baltistan: Hunza=2, Gilgit=1, Astore=Trace.

History in Review:18-24 June 2015- The days when Karachi burned!

Heatwaves in Karachi during the month of June are no big deal. It is quite common for the temperatures in the city to rise over 40'C for a few days every year, which usually happens since the moderator- the sea breeze- is cut off and hot, dry winds from the land invade the region.

The year 2015, however, was an exception. While the world observed the strongest El-Nino on record (apart from rising average global temperatures), Karachi experienced its hottest year ever. Usually what happens is that when the temperatures rise over 40'C, the humidity drops to below 10%, which makes the air hot and dry and the heat somewhat bearable rather than above 40'C temperatures with high humidity. A combination of high temperature and high humidity introduces the concept of "heat index", and that is exactly what makes such heatwaves deadly!
The following are the minimum and maximum temperatures along with average humidity and maximum heat index recorded in Karachi between 18 and 24 June 2015:

18 June: Min 29'C, Max 39'C, humidity 52%, heat index 44.3'C
19 June: Min 31'C, Max 41'C, humidity 48%, heat index 43.6'C
20 June: Min 32'C, Max 45'C, humidity 45%, heat index 49.4'C
21 June: Min 33'C, Max 43'C, humidity 37%, heat index 44.6'C
22 June: Min 33'C, Max 42'C, humidity 42%, heat index 46.7'C
23 June: Min 32'C, Max 41'C, humidity 47%, heat index 45.8'C
24 June: Min 30'C, Max 37'C, humidity 62%, heat index 44.3'C

Very hot and muggy weather gripped the metropolis from 18 June and the temperatures and humidity continued to rise with each passing day. By 20 June, the temperature had risen to a blistering 45'C. Heat index on this day was almost of 50'C and the fact that Ramazan had started just a day before aggravated the things further. The use of air conditioners increased drastically as the agonizing heat failed to abate, causing a massive surge in power demand, causing the power feeders and transformers across the city to trip and burn out one after another (despite the fact that there was no major breakdown on a grid level). That is when the situation got completely out of hand and the heatwave started claiming lives. No locality of the city was spared from the wrath of electricity failures and most areas reported power outages spanning over 24 hours on average.  My own area (although exempted from regular load shedding) suffered a 20 hour power breakdown at a stretch as the area transformer broke down and was eventually replaced. We literally spent the night roaming around in the car with the AC on to provide some sort of relief from the relentless heat which refused to abate even after the Sun went down! The next day, we went to our relative's place to spend the day, with the hope of finding electricity there, but we were greeted by recurrent electricity breakdowns on our arrival!

It was literally unbearable to sit even in the fan, and although I am not particularly fond of AC, but those were the days when AC became the necessity instead of luxury! The very walls of our apartment building were radiating heat, and our usually cool and well-ventilated rooms had turned into furnaces- something of sort that I had never witnessed before, although this was not the first time Karachi experienced 40+'C temperatures.

The entire city was in chaos as the death toll continued to rise. By the end of the week, the official number of people who succumbed to the heat had risen to 1264, however this does not account for the deaths that occurred at homes. If those are taken into consideration, the number of people who died in the city due to the heatwave directly was over 2000.
With such a high death toll within a span of week, the graveyards ran short of space for the people to bury their loved ones, and many of the bodies had to kept at morgues. Unfortunately, they too began to run short of space.

As is obvious from the minimum temperatures mentioned above, the nights refused to cool down due to factors such as high humidity, congestion, urban development and lack of vegetative cover.
Other than the fact that people were fasting and had to face prolonged power cuts, what made this heatwave lethal for a metropolis of 16 million was the heat index. The humidity, that usually drops below 10% when the temperatures rise above 40'C, was this time well above 30%, pushing the dew points high and raising the heat index to magnanimous proportions, leading to such a catastrophe. 

Rainfall update:
On 21 June, localized developments occurred. In the afternoon, few areas in district central and west received some showers from clouds that came from North, and from similar development in the evening before Iftar, parts of district east received brief showers from clouds that came from east, while it drizzled in southern areas. No reading for rainfall was received, however localities that received showers accumulated an amount of around 2-3 mm, such as Paposhnagar, where 2 mm rain was recorded (Credits: Waseem Ahmed).

Monsoon watch 2016 (20-June) July to September !

Premonsoon:
Premonsoon showers has already lashed many parts of upper pakistan during recent days and we expect two more spells with better intensity and wider range in the coming week starting from monday. During these spells rain will be observed in upper punjab, upper kpk, kashmir, islamabad and scattered parts of central punjab while isolated at northeast Balochistan alongwith the kirthar range.


20-22 June:

Strong monsoon currents will penetrate to upper parts by sunday afternoon or evening resulting in cloud development over kashmir areas which can later cause some rain activity and pleasant winds in sialkot, gujrat, gujranwala and lahore areas.
Increase in rain intensity on monday night and tuesday morning can be observed in scattered parts of Lahore, gujranwala, Islamabad, rawalpindi, sargodha, faislabad, kashmir and upper kpk.
This spell will also reduce the day temperatures a little bit.
Same areas can get thunderstorm rain on tuesday as well. Meanwhile some central parts of punjab kpk and northeast balochistan can get isolated strong ts as well.

25-17 June:

Another Mild premonsoon spell interacted by western winds will casuse scattered medium to isolated high intensity rains in scattered parts of upper punjab, upper kpk, kashmir and Islamabad.
While during these days isolated to scattered showers can occur in central punjab, kirthar ranges and adjoining areas of barkhan, zhob, dadu.
Southeastern parts of sindh can witness first premosnoon light to moderate showers.

Onset:
Monsoon onset which normally happens during first week of july in pakistan is expected to happen it early this time that is around the last two days of june.
That spell will brought widespread good intensity rains in Scattered parts of Punjab, kpk, kashmir, Islamabad, Northeast Balochistan.
During the first week of july monsoon rains will also lash some parts of sindh including karachi.


July - September:

Monsoon 2016 is expected to be surely normal and 10-15% above normal. We expect flooding in upper kpk, kashmir, southwest punjab, northeast balochistan and southern sindh due to high intensity rains by strong systems mainly by july end and august.

Rivers of Punjab can cause flooding in adjoining areas and local streams of Punjab and kpk can overflow resulting in flooding.

All the authorities and farmers should stay careful during the period specially when they will be informed for heavy rains or flood risks.

Quetta can get rains due to monsoon by july end and during august as well.

Karachi rainfall can accumulate upto 170-230 mm overall during the season.But any heavy shower can cause urban flooding in city.

Southern Punjab and southern sindh mainly the areas having desert climate can witness above normal rains followed by flooding.

The most wanted season is at door. Besides the risks of floods and damage it will increase underground water level as well as farmers can get a lot of benefits. Hub dam a big source of water supply in karachi will get plenty of water for storage.




 

Premonsoon Lashes Upper Pakistan !

Premonsoon currents started to enter in upper and northeastern parts of country by tuesday night and on wednesday a shallow WD from afghanistan started to effect kpk and western punjab areas.
A storm developed over Peshawar divisions and lashed the city with thunder rain and gusty winds.Storm kept moving in northeast/east direction and expanded enough to cause rain in hazara. malakand, chitral, dir and other upper parts of kpk.

During evening storm gripped Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Murree with strong winds and rains.
As it travelled along the typical upper belt towards sialkot it gained strength due to presence of premonsoon currents and pour over jhelum and surroundings of kashmir.

All the areas from Peshawar to Sialkot got good amount of rainfall in last 24 hours with some areas seeing two-three spells of rain and thunders.

More rain in same areas is predicted till tomorrow morning.

Storm gripping Islamabad from west side

Rainfall during last 24 hours:

KP: Balakot 75, Kakul 68, Malamjabba 42, Peshawar (AP 30, City 24), Pattan 30, Lower Dir, Saidusharif 14, Kalam 11, Dir 09, Bannu 02, Cherat 01,

Punjab: Murree 37, Jhelum 33, Rawalpindi 25, Islamabad 19, Gujrat, Kamra 14, Sialkot (AP14, City 12), M.B.Din 05, Chakwal 04, Mangla 01,  

Kashmir: Muzaffarabad 34, Rawalakot 25, Garhi Dupatta 09, Kotli 04, 

 Gilgit-Baltistan: Bagrote 02, Astore 01.

Severe Thunderstorm in Twin cities !

On night of 1 june, 2016 A severe windstorm with scattered medium rains lashed the areas between Peshawar and Sialkot.
Initially the storm developed in peshawar division and moved towards Islamabad.It gained peak strength while approaching twin cities of Islamabad and rawalpindi.
Winds gusts caused a lot of damage to property and trees. 5 were reported killed due to roof collapsing and trees falling while 13 others were injured in similar incidents.

Scattered dusty winds and rains still persist for upper parts of kpk and punjab today late and night.

Wind speed for twins recorded during the storm duration: 

PMD at Chaklala Rawalpindi: 8:20 PM NW @ 130 km/h, 8:22 PM NW @ 148 km/h, 8:50 PM NW @ 148 km/h, 9 PM NW @ 102 km/h!!!
PMD HQ at Islamabad Zero Point: 120 km/h
PWS Westridge 8:10 PM: Maximum of 109 km/h error +/- 10 % (max possible 121 km/h +)
PWS DHA- 2 Islamabad 8:17 PM: Maximum of 120 km/h error +/- 10 % (Max. possible 132 km/h+)
                                                       Pics from Islamabad/Rawalpindi

 

Rainfall in mm:
K.P : Peshawar(A/P 26, City16), Parachinar 15, Dir, Mirkhani11, Cherat09, Malamjabba, Drosh 03, Kakul, Pattan 02, Lower Dir 01.   
Punjab :Chakwal, M.B din08, Murree 06, Islamabad 05, Jhelum03,Sialkot,Rawalpindi, Mianwali02, Gujrat, Mangla01.  
Kashmir Garhiduppata, Rawalakot08, Muzaffarabad 02 and Kot;i 01