Friday 7 July 2017

Monsoon Onset and Upcoming Rains

During the month of july Monsoon will be active in second and third decade. Pakistan will see 2-3 Spells of widespread and handsome rains of monsoon during the time where rain showers will stay continue in upper belt time to time with varying intensity.

We expect Monsoon to make an onset over Upper parts of pakistan including Peshawar, Islamabad, lahore divisions on (10/11 July) while In central parts on 12/13 July Where it will shift to southern punjab and northeast Balochistan around 13 July.

We see monsoon to enter sindh around 14/15 July where it can cover most of province and adjoining parts of Northeast Balochistan in couple of days.

In upper punjab, upper kpk, kashmir, Islamabad rain will pour during Monday onwards with max intensity during Tuesday and wednesday.

Central Puanjb, lower kpk will get Rain showers during Wednesday to Friday.

Monsoon currents will enter Souther sindh by friday Night onwards where it will grip most of Lower sindh on saturday and will give rain 2-3 days.

Monsoon currents will approach many parts of Balochistan on saturday and sunday where rain will be scattered over Eastern, northeastern parts and isolated in North and coastal belt.

#Islamabad, Rawalpindi will receive moderate rainfall on monday. We see rain to be quite heavy on tuesday and wednesday where it can accumulate upto 100mm. Rain will continue thursday onwards with reduced intensity and increasing intensity on sunday and monday. 

#LAHORE, #Gujranwala divisions including all the towns and villages will get rains starting from monday and increasing fairly with heavy falls on tuesday and wednesday.
Increased rain can cause urban flooding. Rain decareases on thursday onwards till sunday where it will become heavy again next two days.

Faislabad, Sargodha disvions and adjoining parts of central punjab will receive moderate to isolated heavy rains during tuesday to friday.

Multan and southern parts of punjab can get rain showers on wed-sat.

#KASHMIR will witness widespread heavy rain during monday to wednesday and onwards intensity will be decreased.

#Peshawar and Hazara divisions will receive rains showers on tuesday with increased intensity on wed and thursday.

Lower parts of kpk will see some heavy falls on wed/Thursday causing local streams to flow fast.

Monsoon will make entry in sindh on friday night onwards and we will see rains in Hyderabad, karachi, badin, thatta, mithi, tharparkar, mirpur khas etc during weekend with some heavy falls.

Central parts of sindh will get thunderstorms during saturday to monday with moderate intensity.

Moderate rain for north sindh during weekend.

Kalat, khuzdar, sibbi, lasbela and adjoining parts of northeast belt of balochistan will get thunder showers of moderate to heavy intensity during wed-sunday.

#Quetta to get showers as well during friday-sunday.

Coastal balochistan will see passing clouds with chance of light rain or showers.

#GB valley will see scattered moderate rains during the week.


Friday 30 June 2017

June Rainfall Amounts!

Month of June remained fairly above normal for many stations across the country while mostly normal for others.
Monsoon interaction with WD caused handsome amounts of rainfall in Upper, Central and Southern parts of country including karachi.

Rain during last 24 hours:

Sindh: Diplo 70, Karachi (North Karachi 62, Saddar 59, Faisal base 56, Masroor, Nazimabad 51, Gulshan e Hadid 49, Model Observatory 39, Landhi 22), Badin 52, Thatta 40, Karachi A/P (Old Observatory 35, New Observatory 26), Nagarparker 24, Chhor 22, Mithi 17, Hyderabad 12, Mirpurkhas 08, Islamkot 03, Dahli 02,  
Punjab: Murree 58, Sialkot (City 34, A/P07), Gujrat 09, Gujranwala 07, Lahore (A/P 05, Punjab University 04, PBO 03), Kasur 03, Balochistan: Lasbella 13, Khuzdar 02,  
Kashmir: Rawalakot 09, Garidupatta 06, Muzaffarabad 05,   
KP: Malamjabba 08, Balakot 05, Kalam 03, 
GB: Gupis 02, Astore, Bagrote 01.

Following rainfall totals were recorded across different stations of Pakistan in this June:
Islamabad (G-8/2) 240.2 mm
Islamabad (Saidpur) 206 mm
Islamabad (PMD Headquarter H-8/2) 152.5 mm
Islamabad (DHA-2) 112.1 mm
Islamabad (Bokra) 103.3 mm
Rawalpindi (Bahria Town) 136.8 mm
Rawalpindi (Shamsabad) 135.2 mm
Rawalpindi (Chaklala) 128.1 mm
Rawalpindi (Westridge) 112.1 mm
Sialkot Airport 136 mm
Sialkot Cantt 123.9 mm
Bahawalpur Airport 145.3 mm
Bahawalpur City 77.1 mm
Lahore PBO 203.3 mm
Lahore Airport 129.6 mm
Taxila 104.2 mm
Kamra 40.4 mm
Bahawalnagar 37.2 mm
Bhakkar 74.3 mm
Chakwal 161.6 mm
Chenabnagar (Chiniot) PWS 38.3 mm
DG Khan 40.3 mm
Faisalabad Airport 76.8 mm
Jhang 139.2 mm
Joharabad 37.7 mm
Jhelum 84.7 mm
Kasur 108.9 mm
Khanpur 42.7 mm
Kot Addu 35.5 mm
Karor (Layyah) 18.1 mm
Mandi Bahauddin 59.8 mm
Mianwali 28.1 mm
Multan Airport 82 mm
Mangla 138.7 mm
Murree 213 mm
Noorpur Thal 126 mm
Okara 86.5 mm
Rahimyar Khan 49 mm
Gujranwala 155.6 mm
Gujrat 133.5 mm
Shorkot 69.3 mm
Sahiwal 107.4 mm
Sargodha Airport 52.2 mm
Toba Tek Singh 99 mm
Astore 11.4 mm
Bunji 7.3 mm
Chilas 7.3 mm
Garhi Dupatta 100.5 mm
Gilgit Airport 10.5 mm
Kotli 120.9 mm
Muzaffarabad 105.6 mm
Rawalakot 131.1 mm
Skardu PBO 6.8 mm
Peshawar Golf Club 43 mm
Peshawar Airport 42.2 mm
Parachinar 27 mm
Balakot 96.1 mm
Bannu 8 mm
Cherat 42 mm
Chitral Aiport 0.3 mm
DI Khan 53.3 mm
Dir (Upper) 86 mm
Timergara (Lower Dir) 99 mm
Drosh 5.2 mm
Kakul 85.5 mm
Kalam 26.3 mm
Kohat 56.2 mm
Malamjabba 81 mm
Mirkhani 12 mm
Pattan 21 mm
Saidu Sharif 28 mm
Risalpur 50.2 mm
Parachinar 27 mm
Karachi (DHA) 113.3 mm
North Karachi 95.8 mm
Karachi (Saddar) 94 mm
Gulshan-e-Hadeed 91.8 mm
Karachi (Paposhnagar) 85 mm
Karachi (North Nazimabad) 75.2 mm
Karachi (Faisal Base) 73.5 mm
Karachi (Masroor Base) 67.5 mm
Karachi (Johar Block 5) 62.9 mm
Karachi (Airport) 59.5 mm
Karachi (Landhi) 57 mm
Badin 68.2 mm
Makli (Thatta) 56.2 mm
Hyderabad Airport 14 mm
Mithi 20.4 mm
Sukkur Airport 4.2 mm
Rohri 1.6 mm
Nawabshah Airport 24 mm
Jacobabad 15.9 mm
Chhor 30.8 mm
Larkana 10 mm
Moenjo Daro 36 mm
Mirpur Khas 8.1 mm
Dadu (Nil)
Padidan (Nil)
Quetta Airport (Nil)
Quetta PBO (Nil)
Barkhan 136 mm
Sibbi 97 mm
Khuzdar Airport 47 mm
Bela (Lasbela) 13.2 mm
Zhob 9 mm
Jiwani, Pasni, Ormara, Gawadar Airport, Kalat, Dalbandin, Nokkundi, Turbat Airport (Nil) each

RAIN REPORT From Karachi: An amazing spell of rain in Karachi this June. One of the best in decades!
Total rainfall in last TWO days (28 June + 29 June):
DHA 18 + 95 = 113 mm
Saddar 25 + 77 = 102 mm
North Karachi 33 + 62 = 95 mm
North Nazimabad 23 + 51 = 74 mm
Paposhnagar 30 + 58 = 88 mm
Masroor Base 16 + 51 = 67 mm
Faisal Base 15 + 56 = 71 mm
Karachi AP 23 + 35 = 58 mm
Landhi 34 + 22 = 56 mm
Hadeed 24 + 49 = 73 mm
Jauhar (Block 5) 23 + 39 = 62 mm

Since 1951, the monthly rainfall data of Karachi suggests that not even a single June has passed since 1951 in which, if it rained in June, the rest of the monsoon months were dry!
(Taha Tarmajee)

June Outlook: 
June is the hottest month in Pakistan. People remember it as the hot and dry month. At the start this june was also very hot and dry. A heat wave which threatened the maximum temperatures to break the records in Pakistan.
Turbat matched its all time maximum temperature record. This heatwave moved north and almost all stations were in mid 40s and above. Then suddenly the moisture started to penetrate from Arabian Sea and BoB and interaction with Western Disturbances caused the severe thunderstorms/windstorms in Rawalpindi/Islamabad.
Quite a few storms were 100+ km/h. In the 3rd week premonsoon rains started and temperature dropped below normal and Islamabad nearly broke its all time minimum temperature. Look at the contrast record high and on the other hand record low.
This has been the pattern of 2017 Since march. Except one severe heatwave june remained pleasant, rainy and comfortable. We also observed the very rare phenomenon of mist in the month of june as the humidity was 100% and had enough time for the mist to develop. Here are the Stats of Islamabad G-8/2 personal observatory. 
Highest Maximum Temperature 45°C Lowest Maximum Temperature 27.5°C Highest Minimum Temperature 27.9°C Lowest Minimum Temperature 17.4°C Average Maximum Temperature 35.7°C Average Minimum Temperature 21.6°C Total Rainfall 240.2 mm Highest daily Rainfall 77 mm Highest Windspeed 164.2 km/h @
 (By Mashhood Ibal)

Wednesday 21 June 2017

Premonsoon Rains!

As per our expectations rain lashed major parts of Punjab, kpk, kashmir and Northeast Balochistan during tuesday to wednesday morning. 

A few Thunder cells appeared over southern and central kpk on tuesday morning and gradually they expanded towards Punjab. During afternoon the rains gripper southwest belt of Punjab and turned day light to night mode in many cities with strong gusts followed by heavy rain.

Till evening the TS was able to cover 80% Areas of Punjab. Rain continued in many upper parts of punjab and kashmir overnight into wed morning hours.

This premonsoon spell alongwith westerly coolness caused the temp to dip below the normal line across a major zone of Pakistan.

System has weekend but isolated to scattered Ts rain will continue in south punjab and few parts of central punjab alongwitth south kpk next two days.


RAINFALL ending at 8:30am:

Punjab: Gujranwala 54, Noorpur Thal 53, Bahawalpur (AP 45, City 17), Okara 43, M.B Din, Faisalabad 39, Multan, R.Y Khan 34, Gujrat 33, Khanpur 28, T.T Singh 25, Lahore (Punjab university 30, PBO 23, AP 16), Jhang 22, Sialkot (AP 21, City 13), Jhelum 20, Kasur 18, Mangla 15, Kot Addu 13, Murree 12, Sahiwal 10, Bhakkar 08, Mianwali 07, Sargodha (City 06, PAF 06), Joharabad 06, Chakwal, Bahawalnagar 04, Layyah 02, Rawalpindi 01. 
Kashmir: Rawalakot 53, Muzaffarabad 44, Kotli 13, Garhi Dupatta 12.
Balochistan: Barkhan 35
KP: Kakul 27, Cherat 23, Balakot 12, Malamjabba 07, Parachinar 06, Saidu Sharif, Dir 02, Peshawar (City 02).
Gilgit-Baltistan: Astore 02.

Current Weather Position
at  02 PM (PST) Dated: Wednesday, June 21, 2017
Astore 18 oCPartly Cloudy  
Badin 35 oCCloudy  
Bahawalnagar 31 oCPartly Cloudy  
Bahawalpur 27 oCMist  
Bannu 34 oCPartly Cloudy  
Bhakkar 33 oCPartly Cloudy  
Bunji 26 oCPartly Cloudy  
Chhor 37 oCCloudy  
Chilas 23 oCPartly Cloudy  
Chitral 30 oCPartly Cloudy  
D.G.Khan 30 oCPartly Cloudy  
Dadu 42 oCHaze  
DI Khan 34 oCClear  
Dir 23 oCPartly Cloudy  
drosh 34 oCPartly Cloudy  
Faisalabad 29 oCCloudy  
Garhidopatta 23 oCThunder Rain  
Gawadar 35 oCPartly Cloudy  
Gilgit 25 oCPartly Cloudy  
Gujranwala 24 oCPartly Cloudy  
Gujrat 24 oCPartly Cloudy  
Gupis 27 oCPartly Cloudy  
Hyderabad 37 oCPartly Cloudy  
Islamabad HQ 26 oCThunder Rain  
Jhang 30 oCPartly Cloudy  
Jhelum 24 oCPartly Cloudy  
Jiwani 33 oCPartly Cloudy  
Joharabad 31 oCPartly Cloudy  
Kakul 20 oCPartly Cloudy  
Kalat 2 oCClear  
Karachi A/P 34 oCPartly Cloudy  
Kasur 29 oCPartly Cloudy  
Khanpur 31 oCClear  
Kot Addu 30 oCPartly Cloudy  
Lahore 29 oCPartly Cloudy  
Larkana 39 oCPartly Cloudy  
Lasbela 39 oCClear  
Layyah 32 oCPartly Cloudy  
Mandibahaudin 27 oCCloudy  
Mangla 26 oCPartly Cloudy  
Mithi 36 oCPartly Cloudy  
Moin-Jo-Dar 40 oCClear  
Multan 26 oCPartly Cloudy  
Murree 16 oCPartly Cloudy  
Muzaffarabad 22 oCCloudy  
Nokundi 44 oCClear  
Noorpur Thal 32 oCPartly Cloudy  
Okara 30 oCPartly Cloudy  
Ormara 34 oCPartly Cloudy  
Padedan 40 oC 
Panjgur 43 oCClear  
Pasni 34 oCHaze  
Peshawar City 27 oCPartly Cloudy  
Quetta 36 oCClear  
R.Y.Khan 32 oCPartly Cloudy  
Rawalakot 17 oCThunder Rain  
Rawalpindi 27 oCPartly Cloudy  
Sahiwal 32 oCPartly Cloudy  
Saidu-Sharif 27 oCPartly Cloudy  
Sargodha Agromet 31 oCPartly Cloudy  
Sh Benazirabad 42 oCPartly Cloudy  
Sialkot A/P 24 oCThunder Rain  
Skardu 19 oCPartly Cloudy  
Sukkur 39 oCPartly Cloudy  
Tim Dir 29 oCPartly Cloudy  
Toba Tek Singh 31 oCPartly Cloudy  
Turbat 42 oCClear  

Monday 19 June 2017

19 June, Premonsoon !

Premonsoon currents have started to enter in upper and central parts of country since last 48 hours and we see isolated showers in many parts of upper belt.

These currents to gain strength tonight and widespread rains will occur in coming days of week.

Today we see scattered rains for twins, upper and central punjab and kashmir. Some parts of kpk can receive showers towards evening.

On tuesday scattered rains showers expected in most of upper/central punjab covering twins, lahore, gujranwala, sargodha, faislabad, sialkot, gujrat, jhelum, and kashmir with some heavy falls in uppercentral parts of punjab.

Rains will continue on wednesday, thursday and friday with decreasing intensity on friday.

Kashmir, upper central kpk will receive showers at scattered to isolated parts in next 3-4 days.

Rains will occur in Multan, DG khan, DI khan, Zhob, divisions and adjoining areas during tuesday to thursday.

Coastal Belt of Sindh will see periods of passing low clouds with chance of drizzle and light shower at times with some increasing intensity during  thursday to sunday.

There are chances of isoalted TS in upper parts of sindh on wednesday/Thursday.

#Monsoon onset is expected around the june end or start of July based on current scenario. 

#Premonsoon rains can occur in southern sindh including karachi during start of july.

Rainfall (mm) ending this evening:

Punjab: Islamabad (Saidpur 72, Zero point 22, Bokra 07), Murree 37, Sialkot (City 39, AP 20), Mangla 24, Gujrat 22, Rawalpindi (Shamsabad 16, Chaklala 10), Jhelum 14, Gujranwala 13, M.B.Din 04, Lahore 03, Kasur 02, Balochistan: Barkhan 29, KP: Dir 13, Malamjabba, Kakul 02, Kashmir: Kotli 02, Muzaffarabad 01.
Today's Highest Maximum Temperatures:

Nokkundi 47°C, Dalbandin 46°C, Bhakkar, Dadu, Jacobabad, Sibbi, Shaheed Benazirabad 45°C.

Saturday 27 May 2017

27 May Night, 2017

Heat wave is baking the most parts of country since last 24 hours. Coastal belt of Balochistan even crossed 40 C mark today.

Hottest places on 28 May were Turbat and Sibbi  with maximum of 52°C 
while Jacobabad 51,
Dadu, Sukkur, Moen-jo-darro 49,
Noorpurthal, R.Y Khan, Bhakkar, Kot Addu, Bahwalnagar 48°C

Dry and hot weather will continue next 24 hours as well. From monday/tuesday current heatwave will subside as some western winds will cause dust storms and light rain at scattered places of upper pakistan.

On sunday afternoon / evening there are few chances of dusty winds at scattered places of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Peshawar, Hazara divisions and kashmir.

Look for #Premonsoon activity over upper parts of country specially northeast punjab and kashmir in second week of June.

Wednesday 22 June 2016

Monsoon Reached over Northeast Pakistan !

As the upper belt of country is receiving premonsoon showers since last three days now officially the monsoon have made its place over Northeast punjab and kashmir much before than the normal onset.

Today morning good thunderstorm rainfall occurred over number of places of upper punjab and upper kpk, kashmir and some central parts of punjab.

More rainfall to occur in these areas during late wednesday night or early thursday with some decrease in intensity.

Multan, DG, khan, Bahawalpur, bahawalnagar, vihari, burewala and adjoining areas can receive first proper premonsoon on wednesday afternoon and during night.

Chances of few light rains in extreme southern border of sindh this evening/night with high clouds passing through most of southern tip.

 Sibbi, khuzdar, zhob and adjoining areas of northeast balochistan can get premonsoon showers on  thursday late.

Rainfall during last 24 hours:

Punjab: Mandibahauddin=63, Jhang=55, Noorpurthal=49, Mangla=43, Sialkot (A/P=39, Cantt=9), Layyah=36, Gujranwala=31, Sargodha=28, Jhelum=23, Toba Tek Singh=10, Rawalpindi (Chaklala=9, Shamsabad=05), Islamabad (Bokra=08, Golra, Z.P=5, Saidpur=02), Murree=8,  Lahore (PBO=6, A/P=1), Faisalabad=5, Gujrat=04, Chakwal=03, Bhakkar=02.

 KP: Kohat=35, Balakot=21, Malamjabba=14, Bannu=11, Mirkhani=7, Kalam=6, D.I.Khan=3, Parachinar=2, Drosh=2, Dir=1, Kakul=1.

 Kashmir: Muzaffarabad=14, Kotli=7, Garhi Dupatta=6,   Rawalakot=4.

 Gilgit-Baltistan: Hunza=2, Gilgit=1, Astore=Trace.

Sunday 19 June 2016

History in Review:18-24 June 2015- The days when Karachi burned!

Heatwaves in Karachi during the month of June are no big deal. It is quite common for the temperatures in the city to rise over 40'C for a few days every year, which usually happens since the moderator- the sea breeze- is cut off and hot, dry winds from the land invade the region.

The year 2015, however, was an exception. While the world observed the strongest El-Nino on record (apart from rising average global temperatures), Karachi experienced its hottest year ever. Usually what happens is that when the temperatures rise over 40'C, the humidity drops to below 10%, which makes the air hot and dry and the heat somewhat bearable rather than above 40'C temperatures with high humidity. A combination of high temperature and high humidity introduces the concept of "heat index", and that is exactly what makes such heatwaves deadly!
The following are the minimum and maximum temperatures along with average humidity and maximum heat index recorded in Karachi between 18 and 24 June 2015:

18 June: Min 29'C, Max 39'C, humidity 52%, heat index 44.3'C
19 June: Min 31'C, Max 41'C, humidity 48%, heat index 43.6'C
20 June: Min 32'C, Max 45'C, humidity 45%, heat index 49.4'C
21 June: Min 33'C, Max 43'C, humidity 37%, heat index 44.6'C
22 June: Min 33'C, Max 42'C, humidity 42%, heat index 46.7'C
23 June: Min 32'C, Max 41'C, humidity 47%, heat index 45.8'C
24 June: Min 30'C, Max 37'C, humidity 62%, heat index 44.3'C

Very hot and muggy weather gripped the metropolis from 18 June and the temperatures and humidity continued to rise with each passing day. By 20 June, the temperature had risen to a blistering 45'C. Heat index on this day was almost of 50'C and the fact that Ramazan had started just a day before aggravated the things further. The use of air conditioners increased drastically as the agonizing heat failed to abate, causing a massive surge in power demand, causing the power feeders and transformers across the city to trip and burn out one after another (despite the fact that there was no major breakdown on a grid level). That is when the situation got completely out of hand and the heatwave started claiming lives. No locality of the city was spared from the wrath of electricity failures and most areas reported power outages spanning over 24 hours on average.  My own area (although exempted from regular load shedding) suffered a 20 hour power breakdown at a stretch as the area transformer broke down and was eventually replaced. We literally spent the night roaming around in the car with the AC on to provide some sort of relief from the relentless heat which refused to abate even after the Sun went down! The next day, we went to our relative's place to spend the day, with the hope of finding electricity there, but we were greeted by recurrent electricity breakdowns on our arrival!

It was literally unbearable to sit even in the fan, and although I am not particularly fond of AC, but those were the days when AC became the necessity instead of luxury! The very walls of our apartment building were radiating heat, and our usually cool and well-ventilated rooms had turned into furnaces- something of sort that I had never witnessed before, although this was not the first time Karachi experienced 40+'C temperatures.

The entire city was in chaos as the death toll continued to rise. By the end of the week, the official number of people who succumbed to the heat had risen to 1264, however this does not account for the deaths that occurred at homes. If those are taken into consideration, the number of people who died in the city due to the heatwave directly was over 2000.
With such a high death toll within a span of week, the graveyards ran short of space for the people to bury their loved ones, and many of the bodies had to kept at morgues. Unfortunately, they too began to run short of space.

As is obvious from the minimum temperatures mentioned above, the nights refused to cool down due to factors such as high humidity, congestion, urban development and lack of vegetative cover.
Other than the fact that people were fasting and had to face prolonged power cuts, what made this heatwave lethal for a metropolis of 16 million was the heat index. The humidity, that usually drops below 10% when the temperatures rise above 40'C, was this time well above 30%, pushing the dew points high and raising the heat index to magnanimous proportions, leading to such a catastrophe. 

Rainfall update:
On 21 June, localized developments occurred. In the afternoon, few areas in district central and west received some showers from clouds that came from North, and from similar development in the evening before Iftar, parts of district east received brief showers from clouds that came from east, while it drizzled in southern areas. No reading for rainfall was received, however localities that received showers accumulated an amount of around 2-3 mm, such as Paposhnagar, where 2 mm rain was recorded (Credits: Waseem Ahmed).